Economists React: China GDP Growth Slows
China’s gross domestic product growth slowed in the third quarter, rising 9.1% from a year earlier, compared to 9.5% growth in the second quarter. However other data showed an unexpected rebound in September, with industrial production growth rising 13.8% from a year earlier, compared to 13.5% in August. While generally agreeing that China seems headed for a relatively benign “soft landing,” economists are now divided on the outlook for policy, with some seeing an imminent loosening and others predicting that policy will stay on hold:
Keeping everything else equal, today’s stronger-than-expected September activity data tend to alleviate the concerns policy makers have on the slowing economy and therefore keep the tightening bias for longer. Having said that, everything is not equal and we expect external demand growth to weaken in [the fourth quarter of 2011] which tends to raise downside pressures on growth, inflation to show a meaningful fall in [the fourth quarter] towards below 5% level and policy stance to be relaxed in the coming months as a result. The exact timing and magnitude of the relaxation will be to a very large extent depend on external demand as it has a much higher level of uncertainty compared with CPI, despite the obvious importance of the latter. –Yu Song, Goldman Sachs
Overall, these data paint a soft landing picture… Looking forward, GDP growth could slow to around 9.0% in [the fourth quarter] due mainly to falling export growth. Admittedly, with the 9.1% growth reading in [the third quarter], we see some more downside risk to our 9.0% GDP growth forecast in [the fourth quarter]. Domestic problems such as falling property sales, Wenzhou’s private lending crunch and local government debt will continue to put some constraints on policies and growth, but we believe those issues won’t result in systemic crisis and hard landing in China. — Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
GDP growth on-year is lower than expected but nonetheless still above 9%, and (on-quarter growth) is still very strong at 2.3%. The pickup in industrial production and retail sales are surprising, and reinforce our view that China’s growth is increasingly driven by domestic demand, which remains strong…These reinforce our view that the PBOC is likely to keep policy on hold for the rest of 2011 and observe closely how the current global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil affects the domestic economy. Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura
China’s [third quarter] GDP result was slightly below market expectations. In the first three quarters, strong investment and resilient domestic consumption drove growth. The contribution from net exports will have been negative, as suggested by narrowing trade surpluses. Though exports will continue to moderate on weaker demand from the G3 economies, growth will continue to be supported by domestic demand, largely as the fiscal stimulus programs have turned out to be much larger than expected…We therefore expect the slow global economic recovery will have a limited impact on China’s growth momentum over the next two years. We maintain our case for an economic soft-landing with [fourth quarter growth] of at least 9.4%, and full-year growth at 9.4-9.5%, a notch higher than consensus. Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao, ANZ
While relatively robust headline growth may provide some comfort to Chinese policymakers, some leading indicators show continued downside pressure. PMI data continue to show a manufacturing economy on the verge of contraction. Despite significant resilience, fixed asset investment is gradually calming (contracting in month-on-month annualized terms in September), with the real estate sector facing severe headwinds amid credit restrictions. The outlook for exports is particularly bleak, with both CFLP and Markit PMI export sub-indices implying sharply deteriorating demand for China’s exports. Whilst the export orders sub-indices are still nowhere near the depths reached during the great recession, the 2008-09 crash was extremely sudden. Prior to the crash, export orders indices were only showing mild weakness…Some cracks are also showing on the domestic front, primarily in the plight of SMEs, with Premier Wen recently visiting factories in Zhejiang and following up with targeted measures directed at alleviating some of the pain inflicted through brute credit tightening. Market rates remain high, compounding the problem, and should show no sign of falling until the central government signals a shift in monetary policy stance. We are not at that point yet, although a drop-off in inflation or a rapid downturn in the Eurozone would hasten that moment. A lack of additional [reserve requirement ratio] hikes and interest rate increases since July signals the end to tightening, rather than the start of loosening. Monetary policy stance has shifted to neutral, although certain fiscal expansion is expected in coming months. ─ Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight
Lex_China’s growth and prices puzzle
China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise concern.
China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading, to be reported this Friday.
The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices has rarely seemed so complex.
A Healthy Dose Of Loyalty
Even as society seems to make it increasingly difficult for people to remain loyal to their jobs and relationships — and their sport teams — a growing body of research indicates there are real benefits for people who commit for the long haul.
Scientists have documented the health benefits of staying in a long-term romantic relationship, including reduced illness and longer life. Employees who stick with a single company rather than job-hop tend for the most part to be better compensated financially and to be more productive and creative, other research has found. Another study shows that continuing to root for one’s hometown team helps ease the anxiety of moving to a new city.
Studies looking at loyalty and trust suggest that these qualities may be fundamental to human relationships, some psychologists say. In life, there are few guarantees that another person isn’t going to hurt us, they say. Therefore, staying loyal to someone, and preserving a mutual feeling of trust, allow people to be able to function with others without constantly suspecting their motives, they say.
Long-term commitment in relationships is tied to a greater sense of life satisfaction, happiness and a host of practical benefits, such as shared assets and children, research shows. People with strong social support or social engagement have been found to have lower risk of diabetes, hypertension and heart attacks. One study of 4,000 men over a 22-year period found that married men in their 50s, 60s and 70s lived significantly longer than those of the same age who were never married or who were divorced or widowed, according to research by the RAND Center for the Study of Aging.
Another study, of 130 newlywed couples, found that almost all of the couples’ conflict discussions were about whether or not they could count on the other person. Couples who were best at developing trust and loyalty in the relationship were those who focused on maximizing the well-being of their partner, not themselves, says John Gottman, director of the Relationship Research Institute in Seattle and an emeritus psychology professor at the University of Washington.
Fixing a relationship after one partner breaks the trust, through infidelity, for instance, requires both partners to desire to mend ties. But forgiving a partner too readily could have repercussions, says Eli Finkel, a social psychology professor at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., who studies relationships.
Dr. Finkel and colleagues followed 72 heterosexual couples for five years after their marriages. The couples were asked to report their own levels of forgiveness, agreeableness, self-respect and self-esteem every six to eight months. People who were apt to forgive their partner without that partner making amends tended to show a gradual erosion of their self-respect, according to work the researchers published last year in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Loyalty also brings benefits in business. In Silicon Valley, where companies frequently poach employees from each other, the pay of 50,000 software employees was studied by Kathryn Shaw, an economics professor at Stanford Business School, and her colleagues. For most experienced workers, typically those who had at least five years of experience in the field, the bulk of wage growth comes from staying with an employer, not hopping between companies. People who had a minimum of experience of five years with a single employer typically got 8% increases in compensation a year compared with about 5% for people with a history of job hopping. Dr. Shaw, who conducted the study in 2006 on behalf of the National Bureau of Economic Research, says she found a similar pattern among workers with relatively fewer skills, such as people who install car windshields.
‘There’s a perception in Silicon Valley that there’s a gain to be had by hopping from employer to employer,’ says Dr. Shaw. ‘But short-term hopping is not advantageous to the employer or employee.’
While it is rare for employees to spend their whole career at one company, most are better off if they stay put for five to 10 years, she says. One exception is young workers, who should initially be searching for a firm that offers the right match for their talents and interests, she says.
Employees who stay with a single employer longer also are more productive and creative than those who haven’t been at the company as long, Dr. Shaw says.
‘The more that you’re familiar with the organization . . . the more you can look at it and say there’s another way to do it,’ says Mark Keefe , a human resources manager at Atlantic Health System, a 10,000-employee nonprofit hospital concern in New Jersey. The company tries to retain employees by giving merit-based pay increases that top most of its competitors, and other perks. Last year, Atlantic retained 98.5% of its employees.
Professional football players also may benefit from sticking with one team. An analysis of quarterbacks, running backs and kickers conducted for The Wall Street Journal by football statistician Rupert Patrick showed that in the first year following a team change, players tend to perform better on the playing field compared to the prior year. But over the longer term players who stayed with one team for five or more years performed better statistically.
Players may have greater motivation when they get to a new team, or the coaching staff may be more willing to highlight the player and give him more playing time, says Mr. Patrick, a member of the Professional Football Researchers Association. But when a player isn’t moving around, he works with the same playbook and teammates, which can help in the long run, he says.
Fans of spectator sports also seem to reap psychological benefits from remaining loyal to their teams. In a study of more than 400 people who moved cities in the previous year, researchers found that most fans continued to root for their hometown team, rather than shift allegiance to the teams in their new city, according to a report published last year in the journal Science Quarterly by Scott Tainsky and Monika Stodolska, professors in the department of recreation, sport and tourism at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
The researchers also studied the transplanted residents’ television-viewing habits of their hometown team and found that there was a spike in game-viewing when a game was being played in the city they left behind. The fans seemed to be tuning in as much to see views of their hometown or to reminisce about their experiences at the stadium as much as to watch the games, the researchers suggested.
Staying loyal to a hometown team may help newly transplanted residents keep a sense of identity in their new city by maintaining a connection to the place they left behind, the researchers suggested.
Blake Griffin had 31 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in the 82nd and final game of his spectacular rookie season and the Los Angeles Clippers beat the playoff-bound Memphis Grizzlies 110-103 on Wednesday night.
Griffin sat out all 82 games last season after hurting his knee in the final preseason game and having surgery. He was the only player to appear in every game this season when injuries plagued the team.
Eric Gordon added 24 points and DeAndre Jordan had 14 points and 10 rebounds for the Clippers, who led all the way in ending a three-game skid but finished 32-50 to miss the playoffs again.
Sam Young led six players in double figures with 22 points and Greivis Vasquez added 17 as the Grizzlies rested starters Tony Allen, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph in anticipation of their first playoff berth since 2005-06.
The loss cost them the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. gucci shoes They fell to eighth and will open against top-seeded San Antonio. New Orleans, which lost to Dallas on the final night of the regular season, wound up seventh.
The Grizzlies closed within five on Young’ 3-pointer with 4:18 to play. Griffin answered with a three-point play and Gordon made a layup to keep the Clippers in front, 105-95.
O.J. Mayo and Vasquez hit 3-pointers that cut the Clippers’ lead to four with 33 seconds left. Griffin won a jump ball, but then had it stolen by Hamed Haddadi. After a timeout, Mayo missed a 3-pointer before Memphis called its final timeout.
Randy Foye intercepted Vasquez’s inbounds pass, got fouled and made both free throws with 5 seconds left.
Griffin put on one final show for Clipper Nation, dunking with abandon and showing off the flashy moves that are expected to win him rookie of the year honors.
He had 10 of his team’s first 11 points while Los Angeles held Memphis scoreless to open the game. The Clippers led by 16 points in the quarter, when they shot 64 percent from the floor and 62 percent from the line. They held the Grizzlies to 4 of 18 shooting.
The Clippers were even better in the second quarter, when they shot 70 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the free throw line while building a 29-point lead. They closed the quarter on a 17-2 run, highlighted by Griffin’s one-handed dunk off Bledsoe’s alley oop pass that had the crowd exploding in cheers.
Gordon’s 3-pointer early in the third extended the Clippers’ lead to 30. Memphis outscored them 16-8 to close to 18 going into the fourth.
NOTES: Clippers F Craig Smith was ejected after receiving a flagrant-1 foul and double technicals late in the third. … Grizzlies F Leon Powe was ejected just before halftime after picking up his second technical of the game. … Clippers C Chris Kaman missed his 50th game because of a sprained right knee, while F Ryan Gomes missed his sixth with a sore left knee. … F Rudy Gay, G Xavier Henry and G Jason Williams were inactive for Memphis. … The teams split the season series, although the Clippers remain one of just four teams with an overall losing record (30-32) against the Grizzlies. … Griffin thanked the team’s 18th sellout crowd before tipoff, telling them, “It was a fun year and we can’t wait until next year. This is just the beginning.” … Kim Hughes, fired as Clippers interim coach last April, attended the game.
Shutdown Holds Risk for GOP
With Congress staring at a possible government shutdown, Republican lawmakers are caught between their conservative base insisting they hold their ground on deep budget cuts and political independents they will need in the 2012 election who are pressing for compromise, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
The budget standoff appeared to move little on Wednesday. High-level negotiations to avert the shutdown continued without signs of progress, but lawmakers in both parties said they hoped they could reach a deal to keep government operations funded before a deadline of Friday at midnight.
The poll of 1,000 adults, conducted March 31 to April 4, shows Republicans, especially those aligned with the tea party, ready to fight for budget cuts. Sixty-eight percent of tea party supporters say Republican leaders should stick to their positions on the budget, even if that means no consensus can be reached. Only 28% advises GOP leaders to compromise.
Among all Republicans, 56% called for GOP lawmakers to stick to their positions, while 38% called for compromise.
That kind of pressure has prompted the Republican-led House to approve a bill calling for $61 billion in budget cuts in the current fiscal year, far more than Democratic lawmakers want.
The two parties are stalemated on a plan to fund government operations through Sept. 30, an impasse that would trigger a shutdown if no agreement is reached.
For Democrats, the calculation is more straightforward. By a 71%-to-23% split, Democrats and independents want Democratic leaders to reach a deal. Even the liberal and minority voices that make up the core of the party want their leaders to make the compromises necessary to win a budget agreement.
CHINA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
China is a rapidly emerging economic superpower. Yet China is still far from a high-income country. What does this novel combination mean for China itself and for its place in the world?
In setting out to address that question, we must start with the obvious point. A country with such a huge and growing impact on the world cannot ignore its effect on others. The defining characteristic of such a superpower is that it cannot expect to remain a free rider. What it does and does not do has consequences for the entire global system. As William Shakespeare might have said, China has achieved greatness and now has responsibility thrust upon it.
Defining China’s interests
China needs to develop a policy not just for its interaction with the global economic system, but also for the development of that system. In doing so, it will have to start from a definition of its national interests, values and objectives. I would argue that China’s overwhelming national interest lies in maintaining a stable, peaceful and co-operative global political and economic environment. It is only in such an environment that China can be confident of maintaining rapid economic development.
How should China, as one of the world’s leading powers, seek to achieve that objective? Broadly, I would argue that this interest would be best secured via development of a rules-governed, institutionally-based global system. With this general objective in mind, I want to discuss four principal areas of policy: finance; money; trade and direct investment; and natural resources. This is not an exhaustive list, by any means. But these are some of the principal issues now facing China.
Global finance
In the long run, China is likely to emerge as the most important player in the global financial system. Its objectives must be, first, to create a domestic financial system that is capable of supporting its own economic development; second, to help promote a global financial system that supports a rapidly growing and reasonably stable world economy; and, third, to protect the former – the domestic financial system – from the excesses of the latter – the global financial system. This is, in fact, a huge challenge, because of the complex interaction between global and domestic finance.
I would argue that in achieving this complex reconciliation China’s policies should be guided by the following four broad principles.
First, the Chinese authorities should assume that in the long run, possibly as long as a generation, China’s financial system will not only be fully integrated into global finance, but is likely to emerge as one of its hubs.
Second, the transition to full integration will be not just lengthy, but complex and fraught. For this reason, it will take some time and needs to be carefully orchestrated. An important step along the way will be to free the outflow of private capital from China, particularly foreign direct investment and portfolios capital. Full integration of banking systems is particularly dangerous and needs to be handled with much care.
Finally, it is strongly in China’s interests to support efforts to make the global financial system less unstable. China has been a full participant in the Group of 20’s discussion of financial sector reform, which have gone largely in the direction supported by China’s authorities: tighter regulation and higher capital requirements. China feels, with some reason, that its relatively cautious approach to the regulation of the banking system has been vindicated by recent events. As a result, a degree of convergence of regulatory philosophy has occurred between China and the western powers, though full convergence has certainly not yet been achieved – and may never be.
Global money
Closely related to reform of global finance is reform of the global monetary system. Here, as I have noted, China is already an enormously important player. Again, China’s challenge is to reconcile its interests in domestic stability with those of a parallel global stability. Again, I would suggest a number of broad principles.
In the first place, China needs to recognise that its own policies towards the global monetary system have proved to be domestically destabilising. This is particularly true of exchange-rate intervention and reserve accumulation.
In the second place, China needs time to extricate itself from its distorted initial position. That is going to be quite difficult. The central elements will need to be a combination of accelerated appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, with faster liberalisation of the capital outflow, a shift of disposable incomes towards households and better safety nets for the latter, to lower the enormous level of precautionary savings.
In the third place, China needs to develop a strategy for reform of the global monetary system that fits with its interests in managing the interface between its domestic development and global stability. In doing so, it needs to recognise the reality that the accumulation of large claims on supposedly safe foreign liabilities must be matched by a corresponding supply. Unfortunately, the global system seems able to generate such a supply only via the ultimately self-defeating means of huge fiscal and external deficits in the US.
In the fourth place, China may wish to develop its own views of how the global monetary system should operate in the long run. It appears, however, that those views are likely to be in conflict with the dominant (though not universal) western consensus that the least bad system is one of freely floating exchange rates among large economies that possess domestic monetary autonomy, with monetary policy managed by independent inflation-targeting central banks. China and its partners may need to recognise a fundamental and enduring tension between their views.
Finally, given this impasse, it is in China’s interests to find a pragmatic accommodation via the discussions now occurring within the G20. Such an accommodation would focus on indicators of disequilibrium, the methods and timetable of adjustment, generous and effective liquidity provision for countries in difficulties and governance reforms in the International Monetary Fund, to make it a more legitimate and effective interlocutor for China and other emerging countries.
Global Trade and Investment
Trade has been China’s great success. It is on its way to becoming the world’s most important trading entity. This makes China the natural successor of the US and, before that, the UK, as guardian of the open rules-based trading system. It is important, for this reason, that China abides by all the rules and principles of the system and play an important part in developing it further. This raises several
important issues.
First, China can try to play a role in bringing the interminable Doha round to some sort of conclusion, however limited.
Second, China has a rising interest in protecting its own intellectual property and, for this reason, a matching interest in ensuring its own adherence to these rules.
Third, China will also have a growing interest in protecting its direct investment abroad. For this reason, it should promote stronger rules on protection of foreign investment. This is one of the most important direction for the World Trade Organisation.
UK prince artist “graffiti”
A graffiti portrait of Prince William and Kate Middleton was unveiled by street artist Rich Simmons, in London, on February 11. The couple has been made over as the King and Queen of rockers.
Facing intense market pressure, Spain for the first time opened its regions’ books before year-end in a bid to address investor worries that the regions’ deteriorating accounts could derail the government’s austerity drive. The early peek showed regional spending to be largely under control, though some analysts cautioned that the largest check of their finances still lies ahead.
Spain said its regional governments are on track to meet their budget targets this year, its latest hard work to suppress investor fears that it could be the next European country to require a financial bailout.
The figures show ‘substantial progress’ is being made at the regional as well as the central-government level, said Andres Fuentes, an economist at the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. ‘I think the country is on coursework to accomplish its budgetary target this year and also next year.’
The average deficit across the 17 regions was 1.24% of gross domestic product at the close of the third quarter, the Finance Ministry said — comfortably within the 2.4% target for the full year. eight regions have breached their deficit ceiling: Murcia and Castilla-La Mancha. But the eight are comparatively little, jointly accounting for about 6% of the national economy.
But some said Spain isn’t out of the louis vuitton outlet yet. The largest spending items usually appear in the final quarter of the year, and tax revenues could drop further, imperiling the country’s budget numbers.
Spain’s property prices are still falling after the bursting of a 15-year credit-fueled property boom, and banks are facing growing bad debts. That, some fear, could force the government to aid the banks and hurt its own finances.
‘This is reassuring, but it’s not clear what lies under the hood of some of the banks,’ said Nicholas Spiro, a London-based sovereign-risk strategist.
Ireland’s Troubles Echo Globally
The Irish banking crisis and bailout are affecting exchange rates and borrowing costs around the world, undercutting efforts to reduce trade imbalances and whittling the confidence essential to the global economic recovery.
Ireland’s economy — about the size of Connecticut’s — isn’t big enough to halt that recovery, but as a symbol of tension among the countries that use the euro, it is stirring concerns beyond Europe about the health of the currency bloc’s economy and the ability of European governments to pay their debts.
Indicators show the world economy improving faster than anticipated, says Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan’s chief economist, citing improved Asian factory production and exports as well as a pickup in U.S. consumer spending.
But he is wary of boosting his forecast for 3.9% global growth next year — down from 4.7% in 2010 — largely due to uncertainty prompted by Europe.
A key issue is whether Portugal, Spain and other European nations larger than Ireland will be forced to accept rescues and toughen their austerity programs, endangering their growth. Equally important, Mr. Kasman says, is whether European voters rebel against further bailouts, making default more likely. ‘The big risk is whether governments can get the populace on board for what’s going to be a very difficult ride,’ he says.
Already, market fears that Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium will need rescue packages to cover their debts has boosted those countries’ borrowing costs.
Growing uncertainty, said Howard Archer, chief European economist for IHS Global Insight, is one reason why euro-zone unemployment remains high — 10.1% in October, according to data released Tuesday. ‘Companies are increasingly cautious about employing anyone,’ he said. IHS forecasts 1.4% growth for the currency bloc next year, down from 1.7% in 2010.
Edwin Truman, a former Obama Treasury and Federal Reserve official now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s insistence on a change in policy that raises the possibility that government bondholders, after 2013, may not be paid in full is having ramifications today.
‘People say ‘If they change the rules of the game today, I’d better protect myself today’ ‘ — which means insisting on higher interest rates for lending to governments, he said. ‘It’s threatening; no one knows what the rules are.’
The first act of the European sovereign-debt crisis, starring Greece, was widely blamed for the global economy’s hesitation in the spring, partly because it revived memories of the turmoil surrounding the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. The latest round is shaking confidence again.
‘Starting with Europe’s re-emergent sovereign-debt problems, the optimism that peaked early in November [has] disintegrated rapidly,’ said John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank, and hedge-fund Caxton Associates.
Stepfather Festival
With Father’s Day coming up, it’s occurred to me that this country is missing a holiday, Stepfather’s Day.
If anyone deserves a special day, it’s these brave souls who’ve had to carve out a place for themselves in readymade families with the care and caution of a neurosurgeon.
That’s why we have a Bobber’s Day in our family. It’s our own version of Stepfather’s Day, named after Bob the stepfather. Here’s why we celebrate it.
The Bobber has just moved in.
If you do anything to hurt my mother, I could put you in the hospital, you know,” says the college boy, who is far bigger than the stepfather.
“I’ll keep that in mind,” says the Bobber.
“You’re not going to start telling me what to do,” says the junior-high schoolboy. “You aren’t my father.”
“I’ll keep that in mind,” says the Bobber.
The college boy is on the phone. His car has broken down forty-five miles from home.
“I’ll be right there,” says the Bobber.
The vice principal is on the phone. The junior schoolboy has been in a fight.
“I’ll be right there,” says the Bobber. oI need a tie to go with this shirt,” says the college boy. Pick one out of my closet,” says the Bobber.
“You need to get your ear pierced,” says the junior schoolboy.
“You need to stop burping at the table,” says the Bobber.
“I’ll try,” says the boy.
“I’ll think about it,” says the Bobber.
“What did you think of my date last night?” asks the college boy.
“Does it make a difference?” asks the Bobber.
“Yes,” says the boy.
“I need to talk to you,” says the junior schoolboy.
“I need to talk to you,” says the Bobber.
“We should have a stepfather-stepson bonding experience,” says the college boy.
“Doing what?” asks the Bobber.
“Changing the oil in my car,” says the boy.
“I knew it,” says the Bobber.
“We should have a stepfather-stepson bonding experience,” says the junior schoolboy.
“Doing what?” asks the Bobber.
“Driving me to the movies,” says the boy.
“I knew it,” says the Bobber.
“If you drink, don’t get in the car. Call me,” says the Bobber.
“Thanks,” says the college boy.
“If you drink, don’t get in the car. Call me,” says the college boy.
“Thanks,” says the Bobber.
“What time do I have to be home?” asks the junior schoolboy.
“11:30,” says the Bobber.
“Okay,” says the boy.
“Don’t ever do anything to hurt him,” the college boy sa
ys to me. “We need him.”
“I’ll keep that in mind,” I say.
And so we have Bobber’s Day. The boys buy their stepfather a new toy they can all play with. The Bobber grills steaks. And I am awed by our great fortune that the Bobber earned his way into this family with such grace that it now seems he was always there.
